Before you call the CAT Team to come and strap me in a strait jacket and cart me away just listen to the reasoning behind my statement
The main premise is Australia's bowling attack has been exposed as a 3 man arsenal in the infancy of this series, and one with a distinctly one dimensional demeanour in terms of variety. This in the absence of Shane Watson from this Test and more than likely the series from a bowling sense as well as the off spin of Nathan Lyon already exposed as impotent by the Indian batsmen.
These two have accounted for 36 of Australia's 126 wickets for 2011 or 28.57% of the Teams wickets.
The absence of Shane Watson from the bowling attack is decisive, and will ultimately spell dome for the Aussies. In the knowledge that he has represented the most golden of golden arms for the attack with his grasp of reverse swing. In Watson's case, it is not only a grasp, but a burgeoning mastery. He has been the go to man for Michael Clarke in the Teams time of need, and has rarely let him down in regards to either getting that crucial wicket or putting a clamp on the scoring rate. Both crucial in propping up the rest of the attack, and facilitating their success.
His role is impossible to replace because of the inability of the rest of the Aussies to bowl reverse swing. The effect being profound because arguably the greatest threat of reverse swing that batsmen face is not a part of Australia's bowling make up.
Onto Lyon, who has been the teams leading wicket taker for the year with 22 wickets. It is indeed very unfair to put a line through his name after just 14 overs in the series, but on watching the Indians bat against him you knew this was the reality. In the view that he will spend the series with the Indians drifting between milking him with the greatest of ease or bludgeoning him out of the attack.
The mauling might indeed might become too much of a detriment to the Team that Michael Clarke might lose confidence in bowling him, and with few other options at his disposal. He has used Mike Hussey and Dave Warner, but any Test batsmen worth their salt getting out to them should hold their head in shame. The reality of employing these two is that you are going to give a nice boost to the oppositions scoring rate
Duly it makes Australia's success heavily dependant on the pace trio at their disposal, and to a large part their effectiveness with the new ball because of their inability to bowl reverse swing. Then a heavier workload put on them because of the lack of Watson as a 1st change bowler and the ineffectiveness of Lyon that will see him more than likely hit out of the attack after 2 or 3 overs.
This will not only prove decisive within games, but the wear and tear will become a huge factor in the series as a whole. Especially in the 1st two Tests that are back to back.
In effect, the decisive question for the series will be over whether this trio of pacemen without reverse swing in their bag of tricks is good enough to bowl out an Indian batting line up that is displaying much of its revered mastery?
No!- in my view meaning at worst India will draw the series, and more than likely they will win their first ever series on Australian soil
This in the view of Zaheer Khan showing that he is back to his best with his supreme guile, and mastery of all types of swing. He has shed his embarrassing post World Cup celebration pounds that were joked about in England. Looking trim, taut, and ready to be the bowler that has rivalled Dale Steyn in figures in the last two years. His support pacemen of Ishant Sharma and Umesh Yadav form a pace corp that will more than match the Australian batting.
Crucially all three are as skilled with the new ball as they are with the old, and their proficiency in reverse swing will make them lethal against the current Australian batting. In the knowledge, that Australia's Achilles Heel for near on two years now has not only been their bowlers inability to bowl reverse swing, but also their batsmen looking so inadequate in being able to play against it.
Completing the attack is the unorthodox offie Ravichandran Ashwin, who when he calmed his nerves showed that he has the capabilities to be a factor in all the Tests in this series. Keeping in mind that there are two spin friendly pitches in Sydney and Adelaide to come, and Australia's batsmen have a reputation of late of struggling against spin.
All in all this means that which is more favoured to prevail?
A 3 man Australian attack with little variety against a high class Indian batting line up or a multi dimensional Indian attack against Australia's adequate batting line up.....A batting line up that's major weakness is against reverse swing and spin, which is the major strength of India's bowling.
One does not need to be Einstein to figure a winner from this series!